Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,543
2 New Jersey 19,613
3 Rhode Island 15,991
4 Massachusetts 15,863
5 District of Columbia 14,721
6 Louisiana 13,265
7 Connecticut 13,083
8 Delaware 12,047
9 Arizona 12,020
10 Illinois 11,553
11 Maryland 11,415
12 Nebraska 10,068
13 Mississippi 9,666
14 Iowa 9,590
15 Alabama 8,180
16 Florida 7,873
17 South Dakota 7,791
18 Georgia 7,767
19 South Carolina 7,710
20 Virginia 7,467
21 Utah 7,319
22 Arkansas 7,314
23 Pennsylvania 7,241
24 Michigan 7,194
25 Indiana 7,063
26 Tennessee 6,761
27 Minnesota 6,604
28 North Carolina 6,531
29 Nevada 6,451
30 Texas 6,285
31 California 6,281
32 New Mexico 5,970
33 Colorado 5,788
34 Wisconsin 5,646
35 Kansas 5,226
36 North Dakota 4,810
37 Washington 4,717
38 Ohio 4,633
39 New Hampshire 4,281
40 Missouri 3,761
41 Idaho 3,742
42 Oklahoma 3,674
43 Kentucky 3,664
44 Wyoming 2,678
45 Maine 2,475
46 Puerto Rico 2,382
47 Oregon 2,204
48 Vermont 1,966
49 West Virginia 1,703
50 Alaska 1,673
51 Montana 1,013
52 Hawaii 656

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 590
2 Florida 353
3 South Carolina 327
4 Louisiana 321
5 Texas 270
6 Mississippi 246
7 Georgia 240
8 Tennessee 233
9 Nevada 205
10 California 204
11 Arkansas 200
12 Alabama 199
13 Idaho 171
14 Utah 171
15 North Carolina 153
16 Iowa 146
17 Delaware 121
18 Oklahoma 115
19 Wisconsin 101
20 Ohio 88
21 New Mexico 85
22 Washington 82
23 Minnesota 79
24 Kansas 75
25 Missouri 72
26 Nebraska 70
27 Illinois 66
28 South Dakota 66
29 Maryland 64
30 Alaska 63
31 Oregon 63
32 Virginia 60
33 Indiana 58
34 Wyoming 57
35 Pennsylvania 55
36 Rhode Island 55
37 Kentucky 53
38 Montana 51
39 North Dakota 51
40 Michigan 49
41 Colorado 48
42 District of Columbia 46
43 New Jersey 40
44 Puerto Rico 37
45 West Virginia 34
46 New York 33
47 Maine 27
48 Massachusetts 27
49 Connecticut 26
50 New Hampshire 15
51 Hawaii 10
52 Vermont 10

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,700
2 New York 1,635
3 Connecticut 1,213
4 Massachusetts 1,179
5 Rhode Island 905
6 District of Columbia 784
7 Louisiana 700
8 Michigan 622
9 Illinois 567
10 Maryland 531
11 Pennsylvania 527
12 Delaware 523
13 Indiana 395
14 Mississippi 366
15 Colorado 295
16 New Hampshire 275
17 Minnesota 265
18 Georgia 263
19 Ohio 248
20 Arizona 242
21 New Mexico 239
22 Iowa 227
23 Virginia 212
24 Alabama 200
25 Washington 176
26 Missouri 172
27 Nevada 170
28 Florida 168
29 California 158
30 South Carolina 152
31 Nebraska 146
32 Wisconsin 137
33 Kentucky 135
34 North Carolina 133
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 109
37 Oklahoma 99
38 Kansas 96
39 Arkansas 92
40 Tennessee 89
41 Vermont 89
42 Texas 88
43 Maine 78
44 Utah 54
45 Idaho 52
46 West Virginia 51
47 Oregon 50
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 20
51 Alaska 16
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New York 11
2 Arizona 7
3 Louisiana 4
4 New Jersey 4
5 Rhode Island 4
6 South Carolina 4
7 Alabama 3
8 Mississippi 3
9 California 2
10 Florida 2
11 Illinois 2
12 Maryland 2
13 Nevada 2
14 Ohio 2
15 Pennsylvania 2
16 South Dakota 2
17 Virginia 2
18 Arkansas 1
19 Colorado 1
20 Delaware 1
21 District of Columbia 1
22 Georgia 1
23 Indiana 1
24 Kentucky 1
25 Massachusetts 1
26 Michigan 1
27 Minnesota 1
28 Missouri 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 New Hampshire 1
31 New Mexico 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 Tennessee 1
34 Texas 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Iowa 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Maine 0
42 Montana 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 132,045 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 89,134 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 86,901 4 99
Lee Arkansas 85,243 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 15,495 177 94
Richland South Carolina 9,036 469 85
Orange California 4,932 974 69
York South Carolina 4,630 1040 66
Pierce Washington 3,297 1380 56

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,619 5 99
Richland South Carolina 207 672 78
Davidson Tennessee 166 778 75
Pierce Washington 115 982 68
Orange California 111 1004 68
York South Carolina 43 1558 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons